Modal shift for an environmental lift?

The project Modal shift project for an environmental lift? (MOSEL) has focused on the political ambition of shifting freight transports from road to rail and sea, the modal shift’s role in relation to the reduction of the direct emissions to air, and if so how the modal shift could be realized to a greater degree. Further questions were the extent to which modal shift policy instruments contribute to the achievement of the Swedish environmental quality objectives Limited climate impact, Fresh air, No eutrophication and Only natural acidification and, if these policies have a limited impact, how can they be changed / supplemented to increase the freight transport sector’s contribution to reaching the environmental objectives.

Our results show that it is possible to question the starting point for the project’s title Modal shift for an environmental lift. During the project, we have therefore added a question mark to the title. This is based on two project results: firstly, that there is a limited potential to realize a comprehensive modal shift from road to rail and sea, at least in the short term; secondly, that it is not self-evident that the modal shift contributes to achieving climate and environmental goals, given the decided and planned infrastructure and technology investments and the political decisions taken at EU and national level in Sweden.

Our results should be read as an encouragement that all modes must contribute to reducing their climate and environmental impact. To meet the environmental quality objectives and the other transport policy goals, we must be able to weigh different interests and update our strategies and assumptions based on the current situation. A too narrow focus on the climate goal can lead to priorities that risk leading to an inefficient transport system from a larger societal perspective.

Our review has shown that freight modal shift policy instruments are partially viable for the environmental quality objectives Limited climate impact and Fresh air. To achieve the objectives No eutrophication and Only natural acidification, modal shift policies need to be combined with instruments that give the sea transport sector incentives to switch to alternative fuels and accelerate investments in new vessels and retrofitting current vessels. The shift from road to rail is calculated to have a great theoretical potential to meet all environmental quality objectives; to be able to utilize this potential, we need investments and policy instruments that provide incentives for using the limited track capacity in an efficient way.