Towards ecosystem-based aquatic management

The RiSe-Gen project aims to develop genomic tools to monitor the Baltic ringed seal, a top predator highly affected by climate change. Using whole-genome sequencing, population sizes, genetic diversity, and dispersal patterns will be analysed in the Baltic Sea. The goal is to create 1,000 genetic markers to enable cost-effective monitoring and mapping of the seals’ population structure. The findings will also be used to model how the population may be affected by ongoing climate change and human activities such as hunting and fishing. The project comprises three main work areas: population genomics analysis, development of genetic markers, and simulation of future ecological and genetic scenarios. By combining these methods, a robust database and tools to support long-term monitoring and management will be developed. The outcomes are expected to enhance the management of marine mammals and provide guidance on sustainable hunting quotas and marine protected areas.

Project Leader: Nicolas Dussex, Swedish Museum of Natural History

Approved Funding: SEK 4,000,000

This research project seeks to understand how seals and cormorants affect coastal fish populations in the Baltic Sea, particularly species like pike and perch, which have drastically declined. Using methods such as acoustic predation transmitters and experiments to prevent predation, researchers will study both direct and indirect effects of predation. The project focuses on quantifying predation, analysing fish behaviour in the presence of predators, and evaluating mitigation measures like seal-safe nets to protect fish-rich areas. The studies will take place in Kalmarsund and Blekinge, utilising a unique research infrastructure with high-resolution acoustic telemetry networks. The project involves collaboration with authorities, stakeholders, and local actors to ensure the findings are relevant and applicable. The research aims to develop better tools for balancing predator conservation and sustainable fishing, creating evidence-based management plans, and protecting coastal ecosystems and fish stocks.

Project Leader: Petter Tibblin, Linnaeus University

Approved Funding: SEK 4,498,300

This project aims to develop and evaluate the use of genetic eDNA methods to improve the management of fish populations, focusing on salmon and trout. eDNA, derived from genetic material in the environment, offers less invasive and cost-effective alternatives to traditional methods such as electrofishing. The project will compare different genetic techniques to identify population structures and sizes and evaluate how well eDNA data correlate with fish numbers and biomass. Samples will be collected during the spawning season for maximum DNA concentration and correlated with traditional electrofishing data. The findings are expected to improve understanding of genetic variation and population densities, crucial for sustainable management and conservation of fish stocks.

Project Leader: Johanna Sjöstedt, Halmstad University

Approved Funding: SEK 4,994,206

Herring is a vital species for the ecosystem and fisheries in the Baltic Sea. However, stocks have declined by up to 80% since the 1970s, threatening both the species and the ecosystem's sustainability. Genetic information on the populations is scarce, making it difficult to develop effective management strategies. Using advanced population genetics techniques, this project will create detailed genetic maps of herring stocks in the Baltic Sea. The aim is to identify the genetic structure of populations, trace migration patterns, and monitor genetic diversity over time. By combining data from previous genetic studies with new sample collections, the project enables a broader analysis of both common and rare populations. The research will contribute to adapting management models to the genetic structure of herring stocks, improving long-term sustainability for both fisheries and the ecosystem. The outcomes will provide a basis for dynamic, genetically informed decisions, including warning systems for detecting threats to the populations' genetic health.

Project Leader: Jake Goodall, Uppsala University

Approved Funding: SEK 3,828,693

Seals play a crucial role in marine ecosystems, but conflicts with the fishing industry necessitate balanced management. Grey and harbour seal populations in Sweden have recovered from historic overhunting but face new challenges. The project examines how regional hunting quotas and hunting structures affect these populations, considering factors such as sex, age, and geographic distribution. Data on seal numbers, health, and pup production, will be collected and it will be analysed how different hunting strategies influence population growth and stability. Using advanced models and an interactive web application, the project enables faster, more dynamic management of hunting quotas. A specific focus is placed on identifying critical breeding sites for protection and future monitoring. The findings are expected to lead to improved methods for balancing human interests with seal conservation, reducing conflicts between seals and the fishing industry, and providing scientific support for sustainable decisions on hunting and marine resources.

Project Leader: Daire Carroll, University of Gothenburg

Approved Funding: SEK 3,897,861

Marine spatial planning requires balancing various uses of the sea with the preservation of ecological resilience. Current tools, however, do not sufficiently consider species interactions, increasing the risk of unexpected ecosystem changes, such as fish stock collapses. Climate change exacerbates these challenges by altering species interactions. The project aims to develop a method for ecological risk assessment tables (ERAT) that integrates dynamic food web models with scenarios for climate change and management measures, focusing on coastal food webs in the Baltic Sea. The models will simulate the effects of human activities, such as fishing and coastal development, combined with warming. The project involves collaboration with local and national stakeholders in a "Living Lab" setting, where the method is practically tested for marine planning. Practical applications include improved planning and impact assessments to reduce ecological risks and enhance marine resilience under climate change.

Project Leader: Anna Gårdmark, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Approved Funding: SEK 3,897,875

Large-scale ecological processes in the Bothnian Bay, such as the production of phytoplankton and bacterioplankton, are critical for the food web and, consequently, for fish and shellfish stocks. To understand these relationships, this project will utilise 30 years of data from Swedish environmental monitoring. The focus is to identify factors affecting plankton growth, such as light penetration, nutrient inputs, and organic carbon from rivers. Using advanced statistical models, the project will develop reference values for phytoplankton and bacterioplankton production and their balance. This will provide a foundation for assessing the state of the Bothnian Bay and determining if measures are needed to ensure a sustainable ecosystem. The findings will also be integrated into existing coastal zone models for better predictions and management. The outcomes are expected to support more reliable decisions on environmental actions and management strategies, enhancing sustainable marine resource management.

Project Leader: Johan Wikner, Umeå University

Approved Funding: SEK 2,806,623

The management of aquatic ecosystems in Sweden is often marked by conflicts between various interests, such as the conservation of grey seals and cormorants versus the needs of the fishing industry. This project will investigate how conflicts and collaborations among stakeholders affect ecosystem status and management processes. The focus is on viewing conflicts not merely as obstacles but as potential catalysts for dialogue and innovation. By analysing networks of conflicts and collaborations in three case study regions—Stockholm County, Gävleborg County, and Östergötland County—the aim to understand how stakeholder perspectives influence cooperation patterns. Additionally, future scenarios, including climate change and new legislation, will be analysed to anticipate and address upcoming challenges. The project will employ interviews and workshops to test participatory methods that balance divergent interests and promote long-term solutions. The results are expected to inform better strategies for addressing complex management challenges, improving stakeholder collaboration, and ensuring more sustainable use of aquatic resources.

Project Leader: Maria Mancilla Garcia, Stockholm University

Approved Funding: SEK 5,034,351

The harbour seals in Skagerrak have recovered from low levels in the 1970s, leading to increased conflicts with the fishing industry. A lack of knowledge about seal diets and their impact on fish stocks complicates balanced ecosystem management. This project will analyse over 2,000 diet samples collected over two decades to map seal dietary preferences, their geographical and temporal variations, and differences based on sex and age. Combining this data with fish stock assessments, it will be investigated whether seals are selective or opportunistic feeders. Advanced models will quantify the impact of seal predation on fish stocks and compare this to other mortality factors, such as fishing. The study aims to provide critical insights into the interactions between seals and fish, facilitating the development of scientifically grounded and adaptive management strategies. The knowledge could help reduce conflicts between stakeholders, ensure viable seal populations, and promote sustainable coexistence between fishing and seal conservation.

Project Leader: Monica Mion, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

Approved Funding: SEK 3,128,074