Cumulative effects on the environment

The CENTURION-project focuses on two major threats, climate change and eutrophication, to ecological status of Swedish lakes.

CENTURION addresses knowledge gaps on the cumulative effects of climate change and eutrophication on freshwater lakes.

Specific objectives

• Evaluate temporal patterns in aquatic biodiversity and ecological status since ca. 1850 and identify ecological hot-spots and extreme events in freshwater lakes across a latitudinal gradient in Sweden.
• Quantify ecological resilience to environmental drivers through paleolimnological reconstructions that help to understand the cumulative effects of nutrient enrichment and climate warming on ecological status of lakes across a latitudinal gradient in Sweden.
• Develop a novel assessment method for the EU´s Water Framework Directive that better quantifies ecological changes in lakes and provides relevant estimates of internal reference conditions for individual lakes and lake types.
• Inform policy makers, NGOs, the public, and scientists about changes in Swedish freshwater ecosystems.

We will address these objectives by using an innovative paleolimnological approach to reconstruct past ecological trajectories (i.e. from reference conditions to current states) over the last 200 years in 30 lakes. To do so, CENTURION will use multi-proxies paleolimnogical reconstructions to assess the resilience of lake ecosystems to climate change and anthropogenic eutrophication, and link changes in ecological status to knowledge of past environmental drivers (i.e. climate change and eutrophication). A modelling approach will also be used to disentangle the respective influences of climate and eutrophication on past ecological trajectories and quantify their cumulative effects on lake ecosystems.

Simon Belle, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

4 985 424 SEK

Embryo development pathologies indicate reproductive toxicity due to the presence of hazardous substances or diseases. In the project INSERT, we are developing an understanding of how they occur in small animals inhabiting sea bottom, where they are exposed to multiple environmental contaminants accumulated in sediments, but also to a plethora of other environmental factors, such as temperature. The project is funded by Swedish EPA (Naturvårdsverket).

Understanding reproductive toxicity in amphipods resulting from contaminant exposure is important from both basic biology and applied perspectives. Reproductive disorders and malformed embryos of amphipods is a supplementary indicator for environmental status assessment within Marine Strategy Framework Directive. To support this indicator, we use long-term monitoring data complemented with experiments and a state-of-the-art analysis of biomarkers, genotoxicity markers, and stable isotopes to understand the contaminant-specific effects on the amphipod reproduction.

Elena Gorokhova, Stockholm University.

4 999 998 SEK

The ClimPoll project will increase the understanding of cumulative effects of worldwide adverse human pressures, including pollution, ocean acidification and global warming, on the nature and strength of food-web structure and trophic interactions in the ocean. The project is founded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water management.

There is an ever-increasing pressure upon the marine environment. Pollution, overexploitation, climate change and other human induced (anthropogenic) stressors modify our seas and coasts, which lead to decreased biodiversity, loss of habitats and reduced ecological resilience. Increased pressure from cumulative human impacts emphasizes the significance of developing strategies for sustainable ocean governance. Understanding and managing cumulative effects of multiple environmental stressors is therefore crucial to support optimal ecosystem-based marine spatial planning.

The main goal within ClimPoll is to compile current state of knowledge on how climate change, such as global warming and ocean acidification affect different species, focusing on phytoplankton, zooplankton, herring, and cod. In addition, investigate how climate change induced global warming and ocean acidification affect the toxic effects of organic contaminants and metal in the marine environment. As an example, the project focuses on the food chain phytoplankton – zooplankton – herring – cod.

Martin Gullström, Södertörn University

4 975 378 SEK

Cod is a keystone species in marine ecosystems. It shapes the conditions for a large number of other species in the sea and is also of great importance both economically and culturally. However, the Swedish Atlantic cod stocks are on the verge of collapse with serious population declines observed in the Baltic Sea and on the Swedish west coast. Will the already weakened stocks meet another challenge; climate change?

Research based on the latest climate models shows that the temperature will rise and lead to local heat waves. Ocean acidification will increase, and salinity will reduce in the Baltic Sea and part of the west coast. Together, these climate effects will dramatically alter the marine environment around Sweden.

Each of these changes can cause physiological stress in marine organisms. In order to better understand the anticipated fate of cod in a changing climate, this project aims to investigate how Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from coastal populations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea respond to the cumulative effects of climate change factors such as reduced salinity (freshening), reduced pH (ocean acidification) and increased temperature (warming events).

The project is based on experimental studies where juvenile cod from the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, respectively, are kept in aquariums that simulate the various changes. The sensitivity of cod is measured by physiological variables

Diana Perry, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

3 700 001 SEK

The Baltic Sea ecosystem and marine life are exposed to many different impact factors at the same time. The BalticCAT research project further develops a food web model that will calculate the effects of a large number of natural and human impact factors.

The BalticCAT project aims to support cumulative effect assessments of the Baltic Sea and Kattegat ecosystems, as an important knowledge input to ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning.

The project will apply spatial-temporal food web models to test the cumulative effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on the state of the Baltic Sea ecosystem and to predict the effects of management actions such as fisheries regulations, reduced nutrient and contaminant emissions and marine protected areas on ecosystem state.

We will also evaluate potential effects of climate change on the effect of cumulative stressors and on the outcome of management actions. We will support the model results by statistical time-series analyses, providing mechanistic understanding of fish stock responses to multiple stressors.

The results will be used to evaluate how numerical modelling tools can complement already existing tools for marine cumulative effect assessment, such as Symphony and the HELCOM BSII, for instance by adding understanding of trophic interactions and dynamic simulations and allowing for inclusion of the effects of climate change.

Sofia Wikström, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

4 995 278 SEK

The REFINE-project focuses on the ongoing rapid changes that occur in the oligotrophic clearwater bodies in the Arctic/alpine ecoregion of Sweden.

Arctic ecosystems are sensitive and therefore particularly affected by the joint effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures from activities such as hydropower, aquaculture and tourism. Current criteria for ecological status assessment, as well as other decision-support tools, have obvious shortcomings when applied to arctic waters. These shortcomings lead to erroneous status classifications and are a drawback for the evidence-based authorizing of permits for human activities that affect water quality.

REFINE addresses the cumulative effects of changes in landscape processes caused by climate change and point source pollution on nutrient loadings to oligotrophic water bodies.

Specific objectives are to:

• assess to what extent the documented, widespread declines in phosphorus in oligotrophic clearwater lakes and rivers since the mid-1980s can be attributed to climate-induced landscape vegetation change;
• provide a better understanding of the nutrient dynamics in lakes;
• develop modelling approaches for nutrient source apportionment that incorporate this knowledge and that can be used in decision-making;
• investigate potential tipping points at which lakes will transform into alternative states;
• synthesize new and existing knowledge in order to provide input to future revisions of assessment criteria for eutrophication and oligotrophication of Arctic/alpine lakes.

Willem Goedkoop, Stockholm University

4 992 809 SEK

A significant proportion of our sea areas are strongly impacted by a multitude of human activities, and cumulative effects of various stressors on coastal and marine ecosystems is a pressing problem. The research project CARAMBHA runs between 2020–2022 and will develop methodologies for Marine Strategy Framework Directive status assessments on seafloor integrity.

The seafloor is subject to physical pressures from many activities such as constructions, dredging, marine traffic and trawling, which may co-occur with each other and with e.g climate change and eutrophication. Seabed status is one of 11 so called descriptors used to determine environmental status in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. According to the MSFD, seafloor integrity status (D6) is to be assessed as proportion of seafloor per broad habitat type adversely affected by human-induced pressures. Currently, compiled information and data is lacking for the Swedish assessment.

The CARAMBHA project will research innovative ways to assess the criteria for seafloor integrity in a necessary spatial context, integrating cumulative impact assessments with spatial indicators of benthic ecosystem function. We will compile and evaluate existing biological, environmental and pressure data, quantify activities and pressures leading to habitat loss in Swedish waters, and estimate the proportion of lost habitat in coastal and offshore areas. We will also conduct stratified sampling of benthic flora and fauna and analyse impacts of anthropogenic pressures on the condition of habitats and ecosystem functions. Finally, we will assess seafloor integrity status for the broad habitat types through comprehensive testing of aggregation principles and scales and suggest thresholds for good environmental status in Swedish marine waters.

Antonia Nyström Sandman, AquaBiota Water Research AB

5 000 000 SEK