Policy Relevant Indicators for Consumption and Environment (PRINCE)

PRINCE was particularly linked to follow-up of the Generational Goal, the overarching goal of Swedish environmental policy, which calls for the major environmental problems within Sweden to be solved within a generation, without causing increased environmental and health problems outside Sweden’s borders.

The project consortium of research institutes led by Statistics Sweden developed a new methodology for combining Swedish environmental-economic data with an environmentally extended multiregional input-output (MRIO) model, EXIOBASE. This made it possible to estimate the environmental pressures resulting from producing goods and services consumed in Sweden, based on reliable economic data and “environmental extensions” to reflect the characteristics of productive industries in different parts of the world in a given year. 

The MRIO and Swedish data were combined in a hybrid model, which the project used toinvestigate an unprecedented wide range of environmental pressures associated with Swedish consumption. In addition to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollutants, PRINCE investigated pressures resulting from use of a number of natural resources (land use, blue water consumption, and an aggregate measure of materials use) as well as pressures not previously used to generate national-scale indicators, such as aggregate use of chemicals, and GHG emissions from deforestation coupled to consumption. For some pressures, it was possible to develop indicators that can be adopted into calculation of environmental pressure from consumption as part of the environmental accounts. Others were more experimental.

For many indicators, the project was able to generate a time-series of results for the period 2008–2014. These were chiefly for emissions to air often associated with – but not limited to – the use of fossil fuels, along with land use, blue water consumption and materials use. 

These time-series revealed that emissions of GHGs, nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) associated with Swedish consumption had all decreased during the period. The land area used to produce goods and services consumed in Sweden had also decreased somewhat, while total material flows (by weight) increased. 

In order to understand how these changes in environmental pressures from consumption related to changes in the Swedish economy, they were compared with a time-series of value added – an indicator of economic activity – over the same period. This revealed that even as environmental pressures were decreasing, value added grew. This means that there was an absolute decoupling between economic development and several key environmental pressures from consumption during the time period. However, it is important to note that the decreases in GHG emissions were still far short of what would be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep global warming under 2 degrees.

While overall Swedish consumption-based emissions decreased in 2008–2014, the ratio between the shares occurring inside Sweden and abroad remained relatively stable. This suggests that developments have been in line with the Generational Goal.

The PRINCE team also studied how the environmental pressures associated with Swedish consumption are distributed among countries/regions, and among categories of products consumed in Sweden.

The results reveal somewhat different patterns for different environmental pressures. However, products from the construction and civil engineering sectors, food and other agricultural products, as well as households’ direct use of fuels for heating and vehicles, feature prominently among the top “hotspot” product groups for a variety of emissions to air. 

The geographic spread is also somewhat different for different pressures. While Swedenis the top country or region for most emissions and resource use results, other geographic hotspots vary depending on the environmental pressure and the quantities of specific product groups concerned.

A new set of environmental indicators explored by the project concern the use and emissions of hazardous chemicals. PRINCE developed novel data and methods capable of generating aggregate indicators. They cover both use of hazardous chemical products and emissions of hazardous chemicals. This work also produced data for two specific categories of hazardous chemicals associated with agricultural production: veterinary antimicrobials and pesticides.

The chemicals study produced preliminary results for one year, 2014, and revealed some opportunities and difficulties in obtaining data. The results indicate, among other things, that the use and emissions of hazardous chemicals associated with Swedish consumption largely take place abroad. Further analysis and development of these indicators is required. 

Another PRINCE case study produced suggestions on how to monitor the consumption of fish so that it becomes clearer what kind of environmental impact may occur, depending on the type of fish and catch method. Further analysis is needed of how this can be developed.

The project also investigated how to deepen the analysis of water use by weighting water use results using an index of water scarcity. The results point to a need for more precise data than what is available; two different methods were tested.

A number of other special studies focused on key product groups such as food and beverages; the information and communications technology (ICT) sector; how to calculate emissions from international transportation with MRIO and for maritime shipping, using also a bottom up method to assess the import from Brazil; and socioeconomic benefits of Swedish consumption in China.