Application of socioeconomic analyses

The project will conduct a comprehensive ex-post evaluation of the bonus-malus scheme for passenger cars, which is a key policy initiative to reduce transport-related greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The project quantifies the impact of the bonus-malus policy on changes in new vehicle purchases, market shares, and use of cars with different emission profiles.

More specifically, the project answers the following questions:

(i) What effect does the bonus-malus have on the proportion of high- and low-emission vehicles?

(ii) How sensitive are the results to changes in the bonus and malus thresholds and the size of the monetary incentives? Can the policy be adjusted to achieve the same emission reductions at lower cost or higher welfare gains?

(iii) How much do emissions change after the bonus-malus system when we analyze changes in the entire car market, including the market for used cars and household mileage?

(iv) Which household types are most affected by the policy and how can the policy be reshaped to further reduce carbon dioxide emissions, without adversely affecting specific groups of households?

Robert Hart, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

4 442 170 kronor

The project focuses on the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's climate investment support (Klimatklivet). Klimatklivet grants financial support for measures that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases among Swedish companies and other organizations. The goal of the project is to improve the understanding of Klimatklivet's impact on actors' investment decisions, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and financial performance using data on actual outcomes.

The project will evaluate Klimatklivet's impact on greenhouse gas-reducing investments, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and financial performance, as well as provide advice on how to improve the design of the policy to facilitate future evaluations.

Shon Ferguson, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

4 154 481 SEK

The project examines whether and to what extent industries have influenced the introduction or design of environmental policy instruments by financing or carrying out research with favorable results for the industry. Text analysis and artificial intelligence are used to analyze a large part of the scientific literature and create an objective picture of the current evidence. The project will conduct questionnaire surveys and economic experiments to understand and quantify how scientific evidence is incorporated into environmental policy decisions regarding policy instruments to achieve environmental goals.

The results are used in economic modeling to analyze when, how and to what extent information influence can influence the design of environmental policy instruments. The project's goal is to contribute to improving the design of environmental policy instruments by investigating how, and to what extent, information influence affects environmental policy, as well as analyzing how political instruments that correct this market failure can be designed.

Jessica Coria, University of Gothenburg

5 000 000 SEK

The Swedish Parliament has decided on a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport (excluding aviation) by 70 percent by 2030 compared with 2010, and that the transport sector must be fossil-free by 2045. With currently decide policy measures, these targets will not be met.

The purpose of this research project is to develop methods for evaluating the combination of policy instruments and measures that can lead to the targets being reached at the lowest overall cost to society. The methods will be based on the existing methods and theories developed for socio-economic cost-benefit analysis and impact assessment, and also integrate sustainability aspects. The project will further develop a systematic framework that authorities can use to provide the government with decision support for efficiently steering towards climate targets while taking other political objectives into account. The framework will be based on well-established microeconomic theory, demand models and parameters.

The tools and methods developed in the project will be designed so that they can be implemented by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and other relevant authorities. The project will analyze policy instruments in a first-best world, but also in second-best situations, where we take into account restrictions such as legislation and EU regulations. Distributive effects and issues of justice will be analyzed. We will perform sensitivity analyses with respect to input parameters.

The project also aims to try to operationalize the concepts of social, economic and environmental sustainability so that they can be used in the analysis of economic instruments, as well as identify synergies between different instruments and goal conflicts.

Maria Bratt Börjesson, Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)

2 531 000 SEK