Sustainable transports

The project has focused on the modal shift goals at the EU and national level. At the EU level, literature studies have been used to compile a database of modal shift policies in Europe. When (ex-post) evaluations of these policies have been carried out, information about these has also been included. The database has been used to classify different types of policies and to analyze their contribution to promoting modal shifts and reducing freight transports’ negative externalities. In addition to the public policy instruments, European ports’ initiatives to promote modal shifts from road to, above all, sea but also rail have been studied. At the Swedish level, literature studies have been used to study national modal shift goals, summarize previous findings of modal shift potential, and discuss implemented policy measures directly targeting freight modal shift towards sea and rail transports. The contribution of the modal shift to achieving the Swedish climate goals has been modeled and studied using the national freight transport model Samgods, based on the Swedish Transport Administration’s latest forecast for 2040. The environmental quality objectives Fresh air, No eutrophication and Only natural acidification are discussed in general. The project results can be used both in Sweden, other countries and internationally. The main recipients of the results are politicians and public servants who work with the design and follow up of policy instruments, especially in the freight transport sector and aim to improve the climate and the environment

Inge Vierth, The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute

4 299 900 SEK

The purpose of this project has been to advance the knowledge of Swedish national transport planning, with a focus on the conditions to integrate climate mitigation goals into strategic transport planning. We have chosen to focus on national transport infrastructure planning (also called national planning), which is a planning process of importance for the development of the entire Swedish transport system; not the least when it comes to the stated ambition to reach a more ‘transport-efficient society’, which is one of three main focus areas in the current government strategy for accomplishing a climate transformation of the Swedish transport sector. The study has been conducted with a focus on:

• Key actors and processes that shape the direction of long-term national planning.
• Ideas, perspectives and assumptions that condition how climate goals are integrated and given meaning in national planning.
• Tensions and conflicts linked to climate goals and climate transformation.

The research builds on empirical material from two rounds of national transport infrastructure planning; the one that was conducted between 2015–2017 and which referred to the national plan 2018–2029, and the current round which began in 2020 and which is focused on infrastructure investments for the period 2022–2033. These two planning rounds have been studied through qualitative interviews and analysis of documents from policy and planning. Analytically, the research has been inspired by theories of power, with a focus on discursive power, complemented by an actor-oriented perspective.

Karolina Isaksson, The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute

3 742 000 SEK

This research project has studied the environmental objectives at national, regional and local levels, their role in transport planning, and if there are any possibilities to meet the environmental objectives to a higher extent. The two recent national transport plans have been studied through literature reviews and interviews. Several case studies were made correspondingly of regional transport planning and municipal district planning. The project has also made discourse analyzes of interviews.

The result of this study can be used by authorities working with transport planning and implementation of environmental objectives and by politicians who set goals for environmental objectives and transport planning at different levels. The study of the national planning process has focused on the integration of the national transport policy objectives related to the 14 environmental aspects that are pointed out in Swedish legislation. At regional and local level, the regional and local environmental objectives were studied, including their role in the transport planning process and to what extent these objectives relate to national environmental goals. 

The study shows that the environmental objectives today are more emphasized compared to previous planning processes, and their impact on the transport planning process has increased. However, environmental objectives still have a limited impact on the design of the transport plans. Reasons for this are, for examples, that planners on different levels consider the environmental objectives to be unclear and that they conflict with other objectives such as regional development or city planning. During the transport planning process, environmental objectives are one perspective among many interests that need to be considered, and thus are given a limited importance. There are also many old road objects, that have been decided in previous plans, that are kept in recent plans although they are conflicting with current environmental objectives. Another reason why the environmental objectives have limited impact is the view among planners and decision makers that the design of infrastructure plans only have a minor impact on the possibilities to achieve environmental goals. Policies for vehicles and fuels are seen as much more important.

Linda Styhre, The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute

4 900 001 SEK

The transport sector stands for a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden. As fossil fuels still dominate this sector, changes in transports will be necessary in order to achieve the national and international climate goals. However, there are significant differences in conditions for transport, both within Swedish municipalities, between people living in the city center and people living in outlying or sparsely populated areas, and between municipalities. These different conditions affect the transformation towards a fossil-free transport sector. In the project, we have focused on such differences by studying the conditions for private transports in five Swedish municipalities, a large city (Stockholm), two medium-sized cities (Örebro and Luleå), and two small rural municipalities (Gislaved and Arvidsjaur).

The overall purpose of the project The impact of regional differences on transport policy effectiveness has been to contribute to the scientific knowledge about regional differences for transport and how these affect transport policies in Sweden. To fulfill the purpose, we have mapped which national and local policy instruments that are used to achieve the goal of fossil-free transport. We have also examined which factors that influence citizens’ choice of transport mode, and whether these differ for residents in municipalities with different conditions. Furthermore, based on the results, we have discussed which cost and distributional effects different national and local policy instruments have, given the regional differences. Three separate studies have been carried out. The first focused on factors that explain differences in car use for different activities, the second on explanations for active transport (walking/cycling) when commuting, and the third study focused on attitudes to different transport policy instruments.

In sum, the results show that there are significant differences in transformation costs for people living in rural municipalities, in sparsely populated areas or in central parts of cities. It is easier for households living in central parts of cities to switch to sustainable transport modes, as distances are generally shorter and the range of public transport is more developed. Electrification of transport is therefore particularly important for small municipalities with small populations and long distances, where the conditions for public transport are limited. Access to infrastructure for charging electric cars therefore needs to be available throughout the country, and it is problematic that the expansion of such infrastructure mainly takes place in metropolitan areas today. Here we see room for more clearly targeted government instruments for this infrastructure to be developed even in small municipalities with few alternatives to cars.

There are also policy measures that may be underused in all municipalities. One such is to develop the infrastructure to make it easier for citizens to choose active transport, not least since active transports are available also in small and relatively sparsely populated municipalities. Active transport is also beneficial from a health perspective, but since these health benefits, both for the individual and for society, arise relatively far in the future, the incentives are weak for municipalities to individually finance measures for increased use of active transports. Given that the health benefits of increased physical activity are distributed throughout society, there may be reasons for several actors (state, region and municipality) to jointly take measures to encourage active transport for both environmental and health reasons.

Linda Wårell, Luleå Tekniska universitet

3 380 437 SEK

In this report we analyse how urban transport policies can help Sweden move towards its environmental goals – including a 70 percent reduction in domestic transport emissions from 2010 to 2030 – at the same time as it meets the overall goal of ensuring a socio-economically efficient and sustainable transport system for citizens and businesses throughout the country. Our contribution is that we combine theory from urban economics and economic geography with welfare economic analysis and an econometric study of the outcome of a specific policy. We begin by examining trends in urbanization and transport in Sweden, with a particular focus on the environmental damages associated with transport choices. We go on to discuss the theory of urban structure, especially its relevance to transport policy and pollution. Next we discuss transport policy and the environment in the light of transport trends and the theory of urban structure, and present a detailed study of the effects of the Gothenburg congestion charge. Finally we build on the data and the theory to analyse potential routes towards zero emissions from Swedish urban transport, both in the medium run (up to 2030) and in the very long term.

Our analysis of urban development, transport and pollution shows that the road to zero transport emissions will be long, given the slow turnover of the car fleet and the fact that even in 2020 only around 10 percent of new cars were electric vehicles (EVs). In the absence of drastic measures to speed the retirement of fossil-powered vehicles, policies over the next 20 years will need to take account of a car fleet consisting of a mixture of fossil-powered and electric vehicles. Furthermore, while urban dwellers account for an increasingly large majority of emissions, policies must also account for the interests of rural people. This implies that policies are needed that explicitly target urban drivers, because the marginal damages of local emissions (such as NOx, particulates, and noise) are significantly higher in the urban context. This conclusion is further strengthened by the presence of traffic congestion in urban areas. Furthermore, urban workers have more options – as shown by the large and widening gap between car ownership per person in rural and urban areas, where rural people own more cars despite lower incomes – and thus are likely to react more strongly to policy.

Rob Hart, Swedish Environmental Research Institute

2 303 000 SEK

A large-scale transition towards electric vehicles would have large environmental benefits regarding energy-efficiency and reduced air pollution in urban areas. Nevertheless, the uptake of electric vehicles is still at a low level. The upfront investment cost and the limited range of electric vehicles are important hindering factors for electric vehicle adoption. On the other hand, the use of electric vehicles is relatively cheap. This is mainly due to the fact that electricity is cheaper per kilometer than petrol or diesel, as well as due to the fact that electric vehicles are more energy efficient.

Currently, policy measures are focused on electric vehicle adoption, and in many countries around the world, policy incentives are provided. However, with the low marginal cost of electric vehicle use and battery developments resulting in higher range, there is a risk for increased car travels, which would have negative environmental effects and might increase congestion. In this project, this risk for increased car use is investigated: the conditions under which increased car use is likely to occur and the influence of policy measures and the provision of charging infrastructure are explored using an interdisciplinary approach. Stated adaptation experiments are used to investigate the behavioral alterations of car users when changing to an electric vehicle. In particular, to combat the negative externalities in increased car uses after EV adoption, the study has designed three incentives that aim to reduce private car trips into the already congested city centers. The incentives were a combination of 1) free EV parking and charging outside of the congestion area (of Stockholm) and an additional reduced-fare 2) public transport- or 3) e-scooter. To test the effectiveness of the incentives, the study has designed a stated adaptation experiment and a custom web map based survey tool that most importantly allowed the respondents to record desired locations for their incentives, thereby providing an indication of public charging infrastructure demand and “entrance parking” (infartsparkering).

Gyözö Gidofalvi, KTH

4 388 307 SEK